GBP/USD 5M Analysis
The GBP/USD pair continued its downward move on Thursday, but at a much slower pace than before. In fact, a slowdown in the pace of decline does not necessarily mean the impulse is losing strength — it may be just a temporary pause before another wave of GBP/USD sell-offs resumes. Given the reasons and justifications the market has been using to buy the dollar for three weeks, the pair's decline will end only when the market decides. Fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical factors currently play no role. No major events occurred in the UK or the US on Thursday. Tehran and Washington resumed talks, and Donald Trump has already claimed an agreement will be reached soon. However, the market did not react to this information because it has little trust in the US president's words. The market also continues to ignore the Bank of England's monetary policy factor, even though the BoE could begin raising its key rate at its next meeting. On the daily and weekly timeframes, a flat trend persists, so the current movement is consistent, given that movements within a range are always random.
Technically, the pound continues to form a downward trend, as shown by the trend line and price trading below the Ichimoku indicator lines. At best, the pound can expect a correction within the downtrend. Despite the absence of local bearish catalysts, market participants currently show no willingness to buy the British currency.
On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, no trading signals were formed. Price is approaching the support area at 1.3179–1.3187, so a new signal may form in this area today.
COT Report
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand was high in the first half of 2026. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Only geopolitics can support the US dollar in the near term. However, until the pair closes below the trend line, we don't expect a strong, sustained decline.
In the long run, the dollar continues to weaken due to Trump's policies, as seen on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another, and Trump's policy aims directly and indirectly to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains, as indicated by the trend line. Price recently tested that line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated September 15), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,200 BUY contracts and 4,300 SELL contracts. As a result, non-commercial traders' net position rose by 100 contracts over the week.
GBP/USD 1H Analysis
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The Federal Reserve's decision and stance have greatly changed the US dollar's prospects and the market's attitude toward it. For the second time this year, a "black swan" arrived and brought excellent news for the dollar when no one expected it. Thus, one should now doubt the pound's upside potential.
For September 25 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3450) and the Kijun-sen (1.3302) can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
No important publications or events are scheduled in the UK today, while the US will release the durable goods orders report, which could affect GBP/USD movement. However, only theoretically. At present, the pair's moves depend on market sentiment and little else.
Trading Recommendations:
Today, traders can remain in short positions with a target of 1.3179–1.3187, since a sell signal was formed in the 1.3301–1.3309 area on Wednesday. Open long positions on a rebound from the 1.3179–1.3187 area, targeting 1.3301–1.3309.
Explanations for Illustrations:
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
