Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 154.53 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 30 points.

Alongside ongoing trade tensions—which remain elevated, especially after the Supreme Court of the United States overturned tariffs imposed by Donald Trump last year—market participants will closely monitor speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Today, Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak. His comments and a dovish tone could reveal the Federal Reserve's intentions regarding future monetary policy easing steps, which would weaken the dollar against the Japanese yen.

The release of U.S. factory orders data may provide additional insight into the state of the American economy. Both positive and negative figures in this area could either strengthen or ease concerns about a potential economic slowdown, indirectly influencing expectations regarding future Fed decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 154.96 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 155.48 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.48, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move from that level). The pair can be expected to rise today only if the Fed maintains a hawkish tone.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.71 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 154.96 and 155.48 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 154.71 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.28, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.96 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.71 and 154.28 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.