Thursday Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded "neither fish nor fowl" on Thursday. A weak downward movement within a weak upward trend continued throughout the day. There was a lack of macroeconomic and fundamental background in the Eurozone and the US, but the market, in any case, paid no attention to them. The only event of the day was another speech by Donald Trump, who once again stated that he is postponing strikes on Iranian energy for another 10 days until April 6. According to the American president, this request came from the Iranian authorities, likely in the context of ongoing or upcoming negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The dollar weakened sharply on this news, but the market reacted to the message for a very short period this time. Traders have grown tired of Trump's constant "fake news" that is not backed by real facts. Thus, the escalation has been delayed yet again, but there is still no sign of de-escalation of the conflict.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were formed on Thursday, but only one made sense for beginner traders to act upon. The second signal was generated too late. At the very beginning of the US trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing the euro to gain about 15 pips. This movement was sufficient for traders to set a Stop Loss at breakeven, at which point the transaction closed.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward correction continues to develop, but we may be dealing with another ordinary one. In early 2026, a long-term upward trend resumed, so we still expect a new medium-term rise in the euro. The fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the US dollar; however, geopolitics is currently the market's main focus. It is this factor that prevents the pair from resuming the global upward trend.

On Friday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1455-1.1474. A bounce from the area of 1.1527-1.1531 will allow for the opening of long positions, with a target of 1.1584-1.1591.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider are 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Friday, significant events include the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the US, which will be published later in the evening. We can likely expect another day of boring and weak movements.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.